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05.21.08 / Blu-ray is on top…so what?

If a technology battle over industry standard formatting takes six years to determine, does anyone care who wins?  This is the question surrounding Sony’s Blu-ray standard for high-definition DVD players and disks.  After years of hoping the free-market economy would determine which was best, the final ruling may be too little, too late.

Much like the battles between VHS and Beta, the HD wars left a media hungry public in the lurch.  Movie buffs dreamed of higher quality sound and picture to match their improved home theaters. They were forced to bide their time before sinking a sizable amount of money into a system that may or may not be around come next year.  And it’s a good thing that most of them did wait. 

Multiple factors seem to have converged on Blu-ray like jackals around a wounded gazelle.  A stumbling economy has made consumers ever more conscious about where they spend their money and what kind of return they’ll get.  As covered in a recent Talkibie article, Netflix and Roku have teamed up to deliver on demand movies, immediately and affordably.  Systems like PS3 provide not only gaming consoles, but also Blu-ray technology and internet connectivity.  As the final coup d’etat, time and technology have not ceased their forward progress, and data storage systems such as the IBM 8 Terabit Optical Network prototype are stepping into the marketplace.  Blu-ray may have come into its own just in time to pick out its headstone.

Like any good business, Sony will want to find something to redeem this anti-climactic victory.  Look for Sony to immediately exploit the current market for Blu-ray and push very hard to get exclusive extras available only on Blu-ray DVDs.  The ability to merchandise through captured audience will take on a new spin.  (Remember, once upon a time you would rent VHS videos and it just showed the movie…no trailers, no commercials.  No, really.  It’s true.  I was there.)  Enter Profile 2.0.

Profile 2.0 is the soon-to-be released Blu-ray technology which will come standard with Blu-ray machines and allow internet connectivity.  The ability to download exclusive extras and content will be a major plus for Blu-ray in that it will justify the vast price difference between standard DVD movies, which run anywhere from $5 – $15, and Blu-ray films which are $25 – $35.  The general audience that will buy a Blu-ray movie regardless of extra content are the action flick crew.  But why spend the extra $10 – $20 for a comedy or drama?  Consumers who want to connect to the fansite, get exclusive offers, see extra scenes and alternative endings, and download soundtrack songs will soon have a reason to spend considering the additional content that Blu-ray with Profile 2.0 can offer.

Analytically speaking, the dollar breakout looks like this:  

Blu-Ray with Profile 2.0 Netflix with Roku Standard DVD player
Hardware cost $399 $99 $60
Cost per title $35 $16/mo membership with 10,000 titles available $15

Clearly, the advantage for Blu-ray will not be in the price-point per title, but in the added value of exclusive content via the medium and the ability to extend movie studio’s merchandising reach straight into the home.

So while Blu-ray might not be the wave of the future, consumers can at least body-surf it until the next big thing.